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Asturbo
04-03-2018, 08:38
I was setting my DS for out league. Next programmed race is in Road America and the virtual date of the event is 20-May. We select this date (just before the summer), to avoid extreme weather conditions, and to have the opportunity of select soft and hard compounds without extreme temperatures. The previous race of the league was in Nurburgring GP in actual date, and it was raining in all the session with random weather, but it could be possible in Germany in March. Bad luck, we thought.

I configured the server with 1 practice session with random weather, 1 qualifying session with random weather and race with 2 random weather slots. When I tested the server I found that the 90% of the times it was raining. I thought that it could be a problem of the DS, so I tried creating offline private races.

I discover with a great surprise, that the most of the session was rainy again. I don’t know how the weather in Milwaukee is, but it’s impossible that the 70% of the time is raining.

I made some series to have more accurate data: 10 weekends in Road America (30 sessions, only one random slot for the race). Of the 30 sessions it was raining in 19 (7 with thunderstorm) and 6 with fog. In all of the 10 weekends, rained in at least one of the 3 sessions. It would be even worst with 2 or 3 weather slots for the race, beacuse the chance or rain grows exponentially. In this situation, the probability of rain during the race is 95%.

So I tried in the driest place in the game, that could be Laguna Seca ("seca" means dry in spanish). Same date, and again 60% of the time is raining. Unbelievable! In this occasion 20 of the 36 sessions was in rain (6 with storm), and 10 was in fog (at 14:00h). In this test, rained in 11 of the 12 weekends (remember that only 1 slot for the race, if more slots, more rain options for the race).

Here are the full results of the tests:

251046

Anybody in California could confirm that is raining the 55% of the time? That’s ridiculous!

I don’t know if devs increase artificially the worst weather scenarios to show the wonderful weather effects in PC, but it’s absolutely unrealistic and unusable in leagues.

Probably all the weather options has the same probabilities, and that is also a huge problem. The chance of thunderstorm or rain must take account the date of the year, and the localization of the circuit. Now in PC2, at Laguna Seca in May is more likely to drive with electric thunderstorm than sunny weather. Also the fog scenarios (fog, fog+rain...) are incredible high.

That also happened in PC1, and in our league we have to leave random weather, because the only random thing was the amount of rain. It looks that in PC2 works in the same way. We’ve to return to a manual drawn system again.

Please, we need a random weather with more realistic scenarios.

John Hargreaves
04-03-2018, 08:55
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gmq4WIjQxp0

Asturbo
04-03-2018, 08:57
Awesome!!! I was searching for that song, but you were faster.

They probably have to change the title now...:D

MaXyM
04-03-2018, 10:09
@Asturbo, you know that probability theory doesn't guarantee that 50% means 5 out of 10 ;) It's true only for infinity samples
I can imagine the answer: You haven't done enough tests.

Asturbo
04-03-2018, 10:17
@Asturbo, you know that probability theory doesn't guarantee that 50% means 5 out of 10 ;) It's true only for infinity samples
I can imagine the answer: You haven't done enough tests.
Of course, but 19 of 30 session with rain, looks too much. I'm not going to repeat until infinite, to confirm...
But you can test my DS. I'll send you a pass by PM and tell me what do you think. Have an umbrella close to you :o

Richie Padalino
04-03-2018, 10:57
"We have this cutting edge technology, Livetrack 3.0, etc etc etc"
"But how can we show this off, when on most tracks it will probably be just dry most of the time"
"Hmmmm, that's a good question......"
"We could just make it rain all the time, like when anyone selects random weather, and also in the vast majority of race weekends in the career mode"
"Brilliant! People love the rain, they love driving in the rain anyway. And then it also showcases this amazing brand new technology that we've got"
"But wait, don't you think we should make sure that the game works properly just in the dry, especially on the Xbox? You know, max grids and that?"
"Nah, it'll be fine, let's just add more physics to the problem, that'll probably make it work better with more cars, as well as live weather, won't it?"
"Errrrr, yeh......... probably........"

rich1e I
04-03-2018, 11:07
SMS is a british company so OFC random weather will be rain most of the time. Simples. Problem solved :p *ducks and runs away*

MaXyM
04-03-2018, 11:08
I've did 10 attempts on your DS (Road America). The result is:

Rain - sorry forgot to write down the type
Rain - sorry forgot to write down the type
Hazy
Light cloud
Rain
Hazy
Havy fog with Rain
Storm
Light Rain
Thunderstorm


70%

Yeah... rain is in majority. One thing which comes to mind is that the weather is selected from 14 weather types (after excluding snow), 6 rainy ones including. It makes 43% probability of getting the rain. IMO the game doesn't apply particular location related weight for random selection. Also it's true, that our results (in %) gives bigger probability of raining than it comes from available weather types. For sure it is strong candidate for revising.

Also I noticed another annoying thing (no weather related). Everytime I connected to your DS, while car stays the same (Nissan GTR-GT3, don't even know why), skin was randomly changing. It's really annoying and afair it was in PC1. I really don't know the point why we have to be forced with such stupid features. There is no single reason to change the skin.

Asturbo
04-03-2018, 11:18
Thank you so much for the test, MaXym. The Nissan is forced in my server, that's correct.

10 attempts is enough to see the pattern. You also can see that no sunny or light cloud results, the same as me. Very strange. You obtained similar results with a 70% of rain. But if you increase the race slots, the options of rain is p70%+p70% = p91%. With 3 random slots, the probability of rain along the race is 97%.

OK, may be random means that all the weather scenarios have the same probabilities -as it looks now- to show all the features of the game. If was designed in this way, i don't like it, but I don't have anything to say.

But in this case, we need another option for the weather, something like "realistic" that have different weigths for different scenarios considering the season, the hour, the lattitude of the circuit and the previous slot. It's the only way to have logical races without human intervention.

PS: This "Realistic" would be different than actual "Real weather", that would be better called "Live weather"

Ofnir4
04-03-2018, 11:21
Maybe someone forgot to tell us that random weather is "random non-clear weather" and that we should put the clear slots ourselves ?

Or maybe it's just heavily weighted towards rain or any effect (snow at the time of year means rain on the track anyway) because it means "surprise me" and goes over the top with eye candy.

Zaskarspants
04-03-2018, 11:56
How about another slider for bias adjustment?
Random could have an adjustment that allowed the user to bias the weather towards dry or wet?

It does appear to me that all slots have an equal chance of being chosen when in reality, even in the uk, it does not rain as often as the random weather is likely to in the game.

Ofnir4
04-03-2018, 12:06
Or at least an option on choose the type on weather we can have (like the multiclass selection) or the one you want to have excluded.

We could also use independent slot length, because once you experience 20 minutes of rain, you basically know that in 20-25 min you will have another weather change, open the menu 5 minutes prior, look at the forecast, you know the future.

MaXyM
04-03-2018, 12:09
@Zaskarpants
Are you suggesting there are majority of players who want to use random with unrealistic probability? If some wants rain often, he can set rain with him self.
IMO most of players expect realistic pattern. Such slider would require the knowledge about probability of rain while setting up a MP session.
Also some one could raise an issue that on some tracks there is too much heavy clouds or thunderstorms appears too often

IMO "random" should reflect distribution of local weather types. It's not solvable other way than setting weights for every single location.
Giving slider which solves nothing except requiring another demand from player is not a good way (but I agree likely easiest one for devs)

Zaskarspants
04-03-2018, 12:23
@Zaskarpants
Are you suggesting there are majority of players who want to use random with unrealistic probability? If some wants rain often, he can set rain with him self.
IMO most of players expect realistic pattern. Such slider would require the knowledge about probability of rain while setting up a MP session.
Also some one could raise an issue that on some tracks there is too much heavy clouds or thunderstorms appears too often

IMO "random" should reflect distribution of local weather types. It's not solvable other way than setting weights for every single location.
Giving slider which solves nothing except requiring another demand from player is not a good way (but I agree likely easiest one for devs)

I am suggesting a slider to allow a personal weighting for random weather, that is all.
I would prefer that to a game set bias depending on locality as that is perhaps not needed as a real weather facility exists for that, on pc only I appreciate.

MaXyM
04-03-2018, 12:25
If Real weather gives random results, than obviously something is broken ;)

JasperBowels
04-03-2018, 12:27
Randomness algorithm should by modify to reflect real weather probability in certain locations.

Dubai Autodrome: Chance of rain very little. Even chance of cloudy small.
Banochbrae: Often rain, cloudy, overcast.

Remember, specific weather is part of the spirit of each track. Make it totally random you ruining immersion.

Zaskarspants
04-03-2018, 12:38
Randomness algorithm should by modify to reflect real weather probability in certain locations.

Dubai Autodrome: Chance of rain very little. Even chance of cloudy small.
Banochbrae: Often rain, cloudy, overcast.

Remember, specific weather is part of the spirit of each track. Make it totally random you ruining immersion.

I would be ok with that too.
Check box for random real, or a slider for self biasing.

Both or either would be be better for me. I tend to avoid random weather at present due to it's rain bias.

rosko
04-03-2018, 12:48
I still hope one day SMS can add a filter for weather even if just an ini file. Rain is not so much the issue for me but when its really bad rain or snowing you probably wouldn't race in those conditions. They are great option for rally & road cars....ok maybe race cars for a laugh on occasion but random weather in its current state is useless for me.

Richie Padalino
04-03-2018, 13:21
I still hope one day SMS can add a filter for weather even if just an ini file. Rain is not so much the issue for me but when its really bad rain or snowing you probably wouldn't race in those conditions. They are great option for rally & road cars....ok maybe race cars for a laugh on occasion but random weather in its current state is useless for me.

It would be good to be able to turn off Livetrack altogether. Not necessarily for high spec users, but with all the issues with the physics going askew on the Xbox with too many AI opponents, that would be a simple solution. And especially seen as how you get such nonsense random weather like has been mentioned throughout this thread.

Zaskarspants
04-03-2018, 13:29
It would be good to be able to turn off Livetrack altogether. Not necessarily for high spec users, but with all the issues with the physics going askew on the Xbox with too many AI opponents, that would be a simple solution. And especially seen as how you get such nonsense random weather like has been mentioned throughout this thread.

No that would rip the heart from the game for me.

The discussion is unconnected with live track 3, as is the randomness or otherwise of the weather.

To be clear I like the random weather option, I just think it needs finessing.

Richie Padalino
04-03-2018, 13:44
No that would rip the heart from the game for me.

The discussion is unconnected with live track 3, as is the randomness or otherwise of the weather.

To be clear I like the random weather option, I just think it needs finessing.

And that's totally fine, so you'd leave Livetrack on. All good :)

Just a suggestion, as a way to solve the physics problem on the Xbox for one. Also, it would be quite nice to not have to deal with rain in almost every race weekend in the Career mode :) But maybe that's just me.

To be honest, I love the time progression, temp changes, etc. But I also like max grids :)

Zaskarspants
04-03-2018, 13:58
There is a thread in the xbox section about xbox max grid stuff, I hope we can keep this thread about random weather discussions.

DinoM
04-03-2018, 14:00
I was setting my DS for out league. Next programmed race is in Road America and the virtual date of the event is 20-May. We select this date (just before the summer), to avoid extreme weather conditions, and to have the opportunity of select soft and hard compounds without extreme temperatures. The previous race of the league was in Nurburgring GP in actual date, and it was raining in all the session with random weather, but it could be possible in Germany in March. Bad luck, we thought.

I configured the server with 1 practice session with random weather, 1 qualifying session with random weather and race with 2 random weather slots. When I tested the server I found that the 90% of the times it was raining. I thought that it could be a problem of the DS, so I tried creating offline private races.

I discover with a great surprise, that the most of the session was rainy again. I donít know how the weather in Milwaukee is, but itís impossible that the 70% of the time is raining.

I made some series to have more accurate data: 10 weekends in Road America (30 sessions, only one random slot for the race). Of the 30 sessions it was raining in 19 (7 with thunderstorm) and 6 with fog. In all of the 10 weekends, rained in at least one of the 3 sessions. It would be even worst with 2 or 3 weather slots for the race, beacuse the chance or rain grows exponentially. In this situation, the probability of rain during the race is 95%.

So I tried in the driest place in the game, that could be Laguna Seca ("seca" means dry in spanish). Same date, and again 60% of the time is raining. Unbelievable! In this occasion 20 of the 36 sessions was in rain (6 with storm), and 10 was in fog (at 14:00h). In this test, rained in 11 of the 12 weekends (remember that only 1 slot for the race, if more slots, more rain options for the race).

Here are the full results of the tests:

251046

Anybody in California could confirm that is raining the 55% of the time? Thatís ridiculous!

I donít know if devs increase artificially the worst weather scenarios to show the wonderful weather effects in PC, but itís absolutely unrealistic and unusable in leagues.

Probably all the weather options has the same probabilities (electric storm vs clear), and that also a huge mistake. The chance of thunderstorm or rain must take account the date of the year, and the localization of the circuit. Now in PC2, at Laguna Seca in May is more likely to drive with electric thunderstorm than sunny weather. Also the fog scenarios (fog, fog+rain...) are incredible high.

This also happened in PC1 and in our league we have to leave random weather, because the only random this was the amount of rain. It looks that in PC2 hapens the same thing, and I think we canít still use this option. Weíve to return to a manual drawn system again.

Please, we need a random weather with more realistic scenarios.

Did you try another date? Eg June, August, etc. ... It may be May's worse than the rest of the month. You know, rain in May is worth gold. At least they say so. ;)

Asturbo
04-03-2018, 14:12
Did you try another date? Eg June, August, etc. ... It may be May's worse than the rest of the month. You know, rain in May is worth gold. At least they say so. ;)
I tried with 20 of june. Only 3 attempts, but 2 of them with rain.

DinoM
04-03-2018, 15:02
I tried with 20 of june. Only 3 attempts, but 2 of them with rain.

Maybe the 20th is the rainy day. :confused: :)

ProDriver
04-03-2018, 18:33
Or at least an option on choose the type on weather we can have (like the multiclass selection) or the one you want to have excluded.

We could also use independent slot length, because once you experience 20 minutes of rain, you basically know that in 20-25 min you will have another weather change, open the menu 5 minutes prior, look at the forecast, you know the future.


That was my suggestion in a thread I opened long time ago.


http://forum.projectcarsgame.com/showthread.php?52916-favorite-climates-for-random-slots

What's is worse the most is knowing that all slots has the same length and all the climates has the same probability without taking into account the station of the year, the category and the location.

That really drives me mad.

PostBox981
04-03-2018, 19:09
I am running an Online Championship of six races at the moment with two of them being finished at the moment. In every single qualifying and race session I have one random weather slot included. By now (not representative, I know) I also feel like there is too much rain (including thunderstorm, rain with fog etc). As it is called "random" I would be perfectly fine with each weather type havŪng an equal likelihood, to keep it simple.

julia-6
04-03-2018, 19:33
In California, Salinas, Sonoma and Long Beach, any date after April 1st you won't have any rain at all until November unless something very unusual happens. In Sonoma, starting in July through August you'll have overcast burning off at noon at the latest to clear weather. Long Beach overcast burning off at 11:00 am to clear. Salinas - Laguna Seca: July-August - fog w/ drizzle in the morning to overcast with sunbreaks in the afternoon. Could have clear weather, or overcast, but you will not have rain on any of these circuits so don't use random weather. However from Nov - March all bets are off.

Asturbo
05-03-2018, 10:00
In California, Salinas, Sonoma and Long Beach, any date after April 1st you won't have any rain at all until November unless something very unusual happens. In Sonoma, starting in July through August you'll have overcast burning off at noon at the latest to clear weather. Long Beach overcast burning off at 11:00 am to clear. Salinas - Laguna Seca: July-August - fog w/ drizzle in the morning to overcast with sunbreaks in the afternoon. Could have clear weather, or overcast, but you will not have rain on any of these circuits so don't use random weather. However from Nov - March all bets are off.
But if the random weather take in count that the probability of rain is 1% in your example, you could keep random weather during all the year. I undestand "random" like "undefined", so nobody in the lobby knows the weather before the start. But the chances of the different scenarios, would be accurate to the season, time, and region. If random means equal options of all the weathers avaliable, it's not real because the options of electric storm is the same as clear in August i.e.

We could keep actual "random" option to show the game posibilities or for not serious races. But it's not usefull for leagues. That's the reason because we need a new option that could be named "realistic", that that takes account these factors. For example in my community, to avoid this question in PC1 (same issue), we defined different scenarios based on the circuit and the date. Then we use the number of the lottery of the day to choose the slot in the table that defines the weather. Low numbers good weather, and higher numbers worse weather. We all know half an hour before the race the results of the lottery and the weather we will have.

http://i68.servimg.com/u/f68/15/82/21/30/clima_13.jpg http://i68.servimg.com/u/f68/15/82/21/30/clima_14.jpg http://i68.servimg.com/u/f68/15/82/21/30/clima_12.jpg

For example the first table was used in dry circuits like Laguna Seca with a possibility of rain of 10%. You could think that 10% of rain is still too high, but with actual random system the option of rain is 60-70%. If the result of the number of the lottery ends above 89, we have rain, stonger with the higher values. The most options are for clear and light cloud (20%+30%). The last table would be for rainy countries/seasons with a posibility of rain of 23%. In this case we have rain with numbers above 76 in the lottery.

An aditional "realistic" weather option -keeping the actual "random"- would be perfect for leagues. The realistic weights of the different options, and not defined previously to the race (still could be surprises), would allow us keep the incertitude but with some kind logic.

OddTimer
05-03-2018, 11:34
Awesome job Asturbo. It does seem that random weather needs some work. what i've been doing is to have all 4 slots active, but only one random. So let's say, clear, random, mid cloud and heavy cloud. I've got the feeling I don't get as much rain, but the game seems to always push for extreme weather conditions...if fog comes, it is always heavy fog, rain is thunderstorm.

M4MKey
27-04-2018, 07:02
To do somewhat of a random weather, I use a selfmade sheet. Here it is : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1s9dcnb9gsMOHI8RJBTPPM4FhyKCUwZWue5FdHPdNySQ/edit#gid=0

Works quite well, data could be more accurate still, but I'm no "weather man" xD

If someone has good enough data so I could make more accurate probabilities depending on the season and the climate, I could update the sheet btw :) But at the moment, it's not really my priority ^^

JPS
27-04-2018, 18:31
I read the thread title and was going to say "if the tracks in UK that seems about spot on". So I won't... :o

Stewy32
27-04-2018, 19:47
My guess is that it just randomly picks one of the options listed in the weathers so clear has about a 1 in X chance but as there are multiple types of rain it is more likely.

sas5320
28-04-2018, 13:13
Which exactly why it used to pick snow at Long Beach sometimes. Most programming errors are born in the design phase

MaXyM
28-04-2018, 16:55
Which exactly why it used to pick snow at Long Beach sometimes. Most programming errors are born in the design phase

Or when there is no design phase but programming ad-hoc based on rough description instead.

gwallace
01-05-2018, 17:53
I haven't done the math, but just what i have observed. Whenever it rains in a race, either when the race starts or during the race; I can count on the next 4 or 5 races to be rain races.

DavidG
01-05-2018, 18:50
This is something that has bugged me since the games release, there’s simply no point in having a random weather option if all it does is simply randomise the available weather types. As there are considerably more bad weather types than good, then obviously you’re going to have bad weather most of the time. And some of these weather types are just ridiculous; as someone else said, it’s as if SMS just want to show off their weather system, without any consideration as to whether it is appropriate for racing or not. I’ve taken part in many races where the weather was so bad that any real life event would not have taken place, which is just stupid. I never use the random weather option now, as it is just pointless in its current guise.

We need a facility to weight the various types, to provide a more realistic likelihood of a particular weather type occurring. The random weather should also take into account the type of weather that preceded it, so there is less chance of moving from clear skies straight into a storm, than from heavy rain to a storm. It should also take into account the time of year and the type of race and track, so, for instance, there should be no chance of rain on ovals. And we should be able to save weather settings to a separate file for easy re-loading.

At the very least, please let us select which weather types are to be randomised, so that we can avoid the really bad ones completely and create a more sensible ratio between good and bad weather types.

Maskmagog
27-09-2018, 19:18
Did some quick testing after Mahjik mentioned that this might have been fixed. My tests points to that it's not fixed. I set up quick races on June 1, 14:00 at tracks where I would assume it would be mostly nice weather (clear-light cloud-medium cloud) and not so much rain. Here's the results:

Laguna Seca: clear, light rain, heavy cloud, heavy cloud, heavy cloud (1/5 rain, 1/5 nice)
Dubai: light cloud, clear, light rain, fog with rain, storm, heavy fog with rain, heavy fog with rain, clear, medium cloud, overcast (5/10 rain, 4/10 nice)
Barcelona: light cloud, light cloud, heavy fog with rain, light cloud, heavy fog with rain (2/5 rain, 3/5 nice)
Long Beach: overcast, hazy, fog with rain, rain, light rain (3/5 rain, 0/5 nice)
Texas Motor Speedway: light cloud, light rain, fog, thunderstorm, rain (3/5 rain, 1/5 nice)
California Highway: overcast, storm, heavy cloud, overcast, fog (1/5 rain, 0/5 nice)

Of course this is just 5 (10 at Dubai) tests per track, but it doesn't seem realistic to me. I really want to use Random weather, and hope that they tweak this to more realistic results, based on track location.

Mahjik
27-09-2018, 19:26
Did some quick testing after Mahjik mentioned that this might have been fixed. My tests points to that it's not fixed. I set up quick races on June 1, 14:00 at tracks where I would assume it would be mostly nice weather (clear-light cloud-medium cloud) and not so much rain.

I think you misunderstood. Random weather should be just that within that region. i.e. if it's a desert region, snow shouldn't be an option when randomizing. However, any viable weather pattern for the region will be available when using random. Random doesn't mean it's going to create realistic weather patterns, it just means it will randomize the weather slot between what is regionally viable.

Schnizz58
27-09-2018, 19:33
However, any viable weather pattern for the region will be available when using random.
Agreed but all viable weather patterns shouldn't have the same probabilities. Otherwise it's going to be raining half the time in Dubai.

Mahjik
27-09-2018, 19:36
Agreed but all viable weather patterns shouldn't have the same probabilities. Otherwise it's going to be raining half the time in Dubai.

To my knowledge, there are no "probabilities" coded. It's purely "random", likely using a random number generator that corresponds to an available weather pattern. With that, then whatever weather has the most variations will have the higher likelihood of being included.

Schnizz58
27-09-2018, 19:43
To my knowledge, there are no "probabilities" coded. It's purely "random", likely using a random number generator that corresponds to an available weather pattern. With that, then whatever weather has the most variations will have the higher likelihood of being included.

Which is the same as saying they all have the same probabilities. Something can be random but not have a uniform probability distribution among all the possible outcomes. Take rolling two dice for example. Rolling 7 is much more likely than rolling 2 but it's still random.

Mahjik
27-09-2018, 19:50
Which is the same as saying they all have the same probabilities. Something can be random but not have a uniform probability distribution among all the possible outcomes. Take rolling two dice for example. Rolling 7 is much more likely than rolling 2 but it's still random.

I'm aware of the differences. I'm just stating what we have, not necessarily what would be ideal.

Maskmagog
27-09-2018, 19:54
Ok, thanks Mahjik for clearing that up.
I still hope they tweak this. Shouldn't be so hard to use weighted random results. Doesn't even have to be per track. Place tracks in 4-5 different weather categories, and use different weighted random results for each category. It would make random weather a lot more realistic and useful imo.
As it is, there's equal chances for Clear and Thunderstorm at Dubai.

Mahjik
27-09-2018, 20:15
As it is, there's equal chances for Clear and Thunderstorm at Dubai.

To be fair, that is the definition of 'random'. :) I would wager if SMS did have a weighted system, people would likely complain about it never raining in Dubai. ;)

bmanic
27-09-2018, 20:20
To be fair, that is the definition of 'random'. :) I would wager if SMS did have a weighted system, people would likely complain about it never raining in Dubai. ;)

I think you may be underestimating people. I'm sure far more people are complaining that it IS raining in dubai than would be, if it wasn't (if the randomization had weighting). :D

Maskmagog
27-09-2018, 20:29
To be fair, that is the definition of 'random'. :)
Well, weighted random results are also random :) and a pretty easy way to make it way more realistic. Which I'm sure almost all would appreciate.

Schnizz58
27-09-2018, 22:31
To be fair, that is the definition of 'random'.

It's the definition of uniform probability distribution. Random just means that you don't know ahead of time what the outcome will be.

ProDriver
27-09-2018, 22:59
To be fair, that is the definition of 'random'. :) I would wager if SMS did have a weighted system, people would likely complain about it never raining in Dubai. ;)

If someone want to rain in Dubai, they has a custom weather that they can use when in a special circumstance wanted to use. Like snow. But a random weather should be the one which not all the options has the same percentage. If SMS don't want to do it so complicated its easy:
40% sunny
30% cloudy
20% light rain
7% rain
2% heavy rain
1% snow
Or something like this with the percentages they consider. That is only an example.

attaGee
27-09-2018, 23:34
If someone want to rain in Dubai, they has a custom weather that they can use when in a special circumstance wanted to use. Like snow. But a random weather should be the one which not all the options has the same percentage. If SMS don't want to do it so complicated its easy:
40% sunny
30% cloudy
20% light rain
7% rain
2% heavy rain
1% snow
Or something like this with the percentages they consider. That is only an example.

Like spring in the Finland but a lot more of raining in the Dubai :D

Mahjik
28-09-2018, 02:56
It's the definition of uniform probability distribution. Random just means that you don't know ahead of time what the outcome will be.

I will say from a programmer standpoint, that is not necessarily correct. Sure, you can augment a random function in different ways with code wrapped around it (did it many times myself back in the day when I was a programmer). But a typical random function call is just a random value between your chosen floor and ceiling, providing the same probability for each entry each time it's called.


If someone want to rain in Dubai, they has a custom weather that they can use when in a special circumstance wanted to use.

Likewise, you can say if people don't want rain they can setup custom weather to ensure they don't have what they don't want.




Folks, there is no right or wrong way to do this. We have what SMS has provided today and that's what we have 'today'. In all likelihood, this is what we'll have for PC2. However, none of us know what holds for tomorrow so we'll have to wait and see if there are any changes in this space. The original comment that I made was in reference to snow being part of the random selection for areas that don't have snow. That was something that was not intended and something I believe was addressed.

Schnizz58
28-09-2018, 03:22
I will say from a programmer standpoint, that is not necessarily correct. Sure, you can augment a random function in different ways with code wrapped around it (did it many times myself back in the day when I was a programmer). But a typical random function call is just a random value between your chosen floor and ceiling, providing the same probability for each entry each time it's called.
You can make a random number generator with any probability distribution you want. Sure, a call to rand() returns a constant probability distribution but that's not the only way to get a (pseudo-)random number.



weather_t
SelectWeather(void)
{
static unsigned int seed;
time_t t;
unsigned int n;
weather_t Weather;

if (seed == 0)
{
time(&t);
seed = (unsigned int) t;
srand(seed);
}

n = rand();

if (n < ((40 * RAND_MAX)/100))
Weather = CLEAR;
else if (n < ((50 * RAND_MAX)/100))
Weather = LIGHT_CLOUD;
else if (n < ((75 * RAND_MAX)/100))
Weather = MEDIUM_CLOUD;
else
Weather = HEAVY_CLOUD;

return Weather;
}


Gives you a distribution of 40% clear, 10% light cloud, 25% medium cloud and 25% heavy cloud.

Mahjik
28-09-2018, 03:29
You can make a random number generator with any probability distribution you want. Sure, a call to rand() returns a constant probability distribution but that's not the only way to get a (pseudo-)random number.

Well aware.. Been there, done that. But you completely missed the point. I'm not entirely sure what you are getting at with this discussion but it's not really going to go anywhere with regards to PC2.

Schnizz58
28-09-2018, 04:00
You said that random implies a uniform probability distribution so I was just letting you know that isn't true. That's all.

ProDriver
28-09-2018, 09:37
Likewise, you can say if people don't want rain they can setup custom weather to ensure they don't have what they don't want.



Not the case if you dont want to know the weather (random weather). When people choose a random weather that should be as more real and unpredictable as possible.

ProDriver
28-09-2018, 09:38
You can make a random number generator with any probability distribution you want. Sure, a call to rand() returns a constant probability distribution but that's not the only way to get a (pseudo-)random number.


Not all people have the pc version. I have PS4 version.

cpcdem
28-09-2018, 11:23
Well aware.. Been there, done that. But you completely missed the point. I'm not entirely sure what you are getting at with this discussion but it's not really going to go anywhere with regards to PC2.

I think he is suggesting how he would like it to be changed in PC2, so it becomes more realistic. You are instead explaining how it works right now, and I am not sure about this, but I think you are also implying that for PC2 this is set in stone and it will not gonna change?

Mahjik
28-09-2018, 12:41
I think he is suggesting how he would like it to be changed in PC2, so it becomes more realistic. You are instead explaining how it works right now, and I am not sure about this, but I think you are also implying that for PC2 this is set in stone and it will not gonna change?

He's debating semantics which is why I said the conversation isn't really going anywhere. Per the definition:



ran∑dom
ˈrandəm/Submit
adjective
adjective: random
1.
made, done, happening, or chosen without method or conscious decision.

What the ask is for it to be pseudo-random. My post that had smilies on it for a laugh mentioned that the definition of random was just that, random. i.e. the option in the game is called "Random Weather" not "Pseudo-Random Realistic Weather". I have no idea if it will change. I will say there is a high likelihood of it not changing for PC2. The initial issue was having snow as an option for randomizing in a region that never received snow.

cpcdem
28-09-2018, 13:00
He's debating semantics which is why I said the conversation isn't really going anywhere. Per the definition:



ran∑dom
ˈrandəm/Submit
adjective
adjective: random
1.
made, done, happening, or chosen without method or conscious decision.

What the ask is for it to be pseudo-random. My post that had smilies on it for a laugh mentioned that the definition of random was just that, random. i.e. the option in the game is called "Random Weather" not "Pseudo-Random Realistic Weather". I have no idea if it will change. I will say there is a high likelihood of it not changing for PC2. The initial issue was having snow as an option for randomizing in a region that never received snow.

OK, thx, that's clear! I am a little intrigued to say that it's already not purely random, since it's random excluding snow, but this is going too far with it , so I will not say it :)

On a more serious note, I agree this is a matter that is impossible to get right for all. If they made the chance of rain 5% for Dubai, I am sure some people would say that 5% is still too much and other people would argue that it's too less, it's a game and in a game we'd like to do strange things more often that what happens in real life, and both would be right actually...

Maskmagog
28-09-2018, 16:18
Mahjik, I got the smiley, np. But if we skip the semantics, the suggestion I'd like to get to the developers is to either change 'Random weather' as suggested, or add it as an extra option. My guess is that it would be very easy to implement, and it would add quite a lot to the game.

ProDriver
28-09-2018, 17:11
OK, thx, that's clear! I am a little intrigued to say that it's already not purely random, since it's random excluding snow, but this is going too far with it , so I will not say it :)

On a more serious note, I agree this is a matter that is impossible to get right for all. If they made the chance of rain 5% for Dubai, I am sure some people would say that 5% is still too much and other people would argue that it's too less, it's a game and in a game we'd like to do strange things more often that what happens in real life, and both would be right actually...

In both cases it is better than 50%

Mahjik
28-09-2018, 17:48
My guess is that it would be very easy to implement, and it would add quite a lot to the game.

The generator algorithm is the easy part. However, each track has to have to each weather slot weighted since the suggestion is to have the slots weighted based on locale weather patterns. And then people would likely want that to flex based on season (i.e. the weight of rain is more during fall than summer). All that has to get stored somewhere so new schema needs to get created, functions to retrieve the data, etc... It's all doable, but it's not as simple as changing a random number generator to include weighting.

morpwr
28-09-2018, 17:54
Stupid question but why not just use real weather?

Mahjik
28-09-2018, 17:57
Stupid question but why not just use real weather?

Consoles don't have that option.

morpwr
28-09-2018, 18:17
Consoles don't have that option.

Thats too bad. I really like that option.

Maskmagog
28-09-2018, 19:47
The generator algorithm is the easy part. However, each track has to have to each weather slot weighted since the suggestion is to have the slots weighted based on locale weather patterns. And then people would likely want that to flex based on season (i.e. the weight of rain is more during fall than summer). All that has to get stored somewhere so new schema needs to get created, functions to retrieve the data, etc... It's all doable, but it's not as simple as changing a random number generator to include weighting.

I understand that it's trickier than it seems to my untrained eye. But they already have tracks in different 'regions' (desert etc). Each category could get a different weighting, not each track. And yes, people will want more. That's hardly an excuse for not doing anything, imo.

Anything that's not making it almost 50% chance of rain in Dubai would be a welcome step forward. Well, at least I tried.

Mahjik
28-09-2018, 19:51
But they already have tracks in different 'regions' (desert etc). Each category could get a different weighting, not each track.

I'm not sure that is accurate (at least from my time in WMD). That doesn't matter. It doesn't change the fact that adding more data to be stored isn't necessarily a simple task.

For example, if they have an API that is used in multiple places in the code which return back 'track data', that may need to be extended to return back additional data. Yes, there are "search & replace" functions in editors, but I'm just demonstrating that a seemingly small change can have a much larger code impact that what it seems on the surface.


That's hardly an excuse for not doing anything, imo.

You assume I'm the one making the decisions?

Maskmagog
28-09-2018, 20:04
You assume I'm the one making the decisions?

No, obviously I know you're an (unpaid) moderator, not a task I envy so thanks for doing it. :thumbsup:
But since Team Blue is not chiming in, you and I are discussing the suggestion, and I thought you had a weak argument, hence the comment.
If you have passed the suggestion on to the ones making decisions, great, that's all I can hope for. Otherwise I have made my suggestion and don't have a lot to add really.
Now off to do some PC2 driving instead :)

ProDriver
28-09-2018, 23:51
Consoles don't have that option.

And pc version is not working as well since a year birthday of the launch of the game (maybe cause the do not continuous paying to the weather server, maybe).

ProDriver
28-09-2018, 23:55
That's hardly an excuse for not doing anything, imo.

Anything that's not making it almost 50% chance of rain in Dubai would be a welcome step forward. Well, at least I tried.

I Absolutely agree with your first sentence mentioned. And of course the second one as well. The game is awesome but IMO the weather, and the penalties MUST be fixed to have a smart game.

Haiden
30-09-2018, 13:53
The generator algorithm is the easy part. However, each track has to have to each weather slot weighted since the suggestion is to have the slots weighted based on locale weather patterns. And then people would likely want that to flex based on season (i.e. the weight of rain is more during fall than summer). All that has to get stored somewhere so new schema needs to get created, functions to retrieve the data, etc... It's all doable, but it's not as simple as changing a random number generator to include weighting.

But since the real goal it simply to eliminate the over occurrence of rain, simply being able to select which weather options you want active would make the random feature a lot more fun to use. It would be nice to be able to have a long race with at least one random weather slot, and not get rain 50% of the time or more.