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Thread: Random weather: Too much rain

  1. #1
    WMD Member Asturbo's Avatar
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    Random weather: Too much rain

    I was setting my DS for out league. Next programmed race is in Road America and the virtual date of the event is 20-May. We select this date (just before the summer), to avoid extreme weather conditions, and to have the opportunity of select soft and hard compounds without extreme temperatures. The previous race of the league was in Nurburgring GP in actual date, and it was raining in all the session with random weather, but it could be possible in Germany in March. Bad luck, we thought.

    I configured the server with 1 practice session with random weather, 1 qualifying session with random weather and race with 2 random weather slots. When I tested the server I found that the 90% of the times it was raining. I thought that it could be a problem of the DS, so I tried creating offline private races.

    I discover with a great surprise, that the most of the session was rainy again. I don’t know how the weather in Milwaukee is, but it’s impossible that the 70% of the time is raining.

    I made some series to have more accurate data: 10 weekends in Road America (30 sessions, only one random slot for the race). Of the 30 sessions it was raining in 19 (7 with thunderstorm) and 6 with fog. In all of the 10 weekends, rained in at least one of the 3 sessions. It would be even worst with 2 or 3 weather slots for the race, beacuse the chance or rain grows exponentially. In this situation, the probability of rain during the race is 95%.

    So I tried in the driest place in the game, that could be Laguna Seca ("seca" means dry in spanish). Same date, and again 60% of the time is raining. Unbelievable! In this occasion 20 of the 36 sessions was in rain (6 with storm), and 10 was in fog (at 14:00h). In this test, rained in 11 of the 12 weekends (remember that only 1 slot for the race, if more slots, more rain options for the race).

    Here are the full results of the tests:

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Anybody in California could confirm that is raining the 55% of the time? That’s ridiculous!

    I don’t know if devs increase artificially the worst weather scenarios to show the wonderful weather effects in PC, but it’s absolutely unrealistic and unusable in leagues.

    Probably all the weather options has the same probabilities, and that is also a huge problem. The chance of thunderstorm or rain must take account the date of the year, and the localization of the circuit. Now in PC2, at Laguna Seca in May is more likely to drive with electric thunderstorm than sunny weather. Also the fog scenarios (fog, fog+rain...) are incredible high.

    That also happened in PC1, and in our league we have to leave random weather, because the only random thing was the amount of rain. It looks that in PC2 works in the same way. We’ve to return to a manual drawn system again.

    Please, we need a random weather with more realistic scenarios.
    Last edited by Asturbo; 04-03-2018 at 16:42.
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  2. #2
    WMD Member John Hargreaves's Avatar
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  3. #3
    WMD Member Asturbo's Avatar
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    Awesome!!! I was searching for that song, but you were faster.

    They probably have to change the title now...
    Last edited by Asturbo; 04-03-2018 at 08:16.
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  4. #4
    Superkart Pilot MaXyM's Avatar
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    @Asturbo, you know that probability theory doesn't guarantee that 50% means 5 out of 10 It's true only for infinity samples
    I can imagine the answer: You haven't done enough tests.
    MSI Z270 Tomahawk | i5 7600K@4.9GHz | 16GB RAM | Scythe Mugen 4 PCGH | MSI GTX1080Ti + Accelero Xtreme IV | HTC Vive | TX+custom wheel+t3pa Pro | custom cockpit

  5. #5
    WMD Member Asturbo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MaXyM View Post
    @Asturbo, you know that probability theory doesn't guarantee that 50% means 5 out of 10 It's true only for infinity samples
    I can imagine the answer: You haven't done enough tests.
    Of course, but 19 of 30 session with rain, looks too much. I'm not going to repeat until infinite, to confirm...
    But you can test my DS. I'll send you a pass by PM and tell me what do you think. Have an umbrella close to you
    Last edited by Asturbo; 04-03-2018 at 09:30.
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  6. #6
    Superkart Pilot
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    "We have this cutting edge technology, Livetrack 3.0, etc etc etc"
    "But how can we show this off, when on most tracks it will probably be just dry most of the time"
    "Hmmmm, that's a good question......"
    "We could just make it rain all the time, like when anyone selects random weather, and also in the vast majority of race weekends in the career mode"
    "Brilliant! People love the rain, they love driving in the rain anyway. And then it also showcases this amazing brand new technology that we've got"
    "But wait, don't you think we should make sure that the game works properly just in the dry, especially on the Xbox? You know, max grids and that?"
    "Nah, it'll be fine, let's just add more physics to the problem, that'll probably make it work better with more cars, as well as live weather, won't it?"
    "Errrrr, yeh......... probably........"

  7. #7
    GT5 Pilot rich1e I's Avatar
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    SMS is a british company so OFC random weather will be rain most of the time. Simples. Problem solved *ducks and runs away*
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  8. #8
    Superkart Pilot MaXyM's Avatar
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    I've did 10 attempts on your DS (Road America). The result is:
    1. Rain - sorry forgot to write down the type
    2. Rain - sorry forgot to write down the type
    3. Hazy
    4. Light cloud
    5. Rain
    6. Hazy
    7. Havy fog with Rain
    8. Storm
    9. Light Rain
    10. Thunderstorm


    70%

    Yeah... rain is in majority. One thing which comes to mind is that the weather is selected from 14 weather types (after excluding snow), 6 rainy ones including. It makes 43% probability of getting the rain. IMO the game doesn't apply particular location related weight for random selection. Also it's true, that our results (in %) gives bigger probability of raining than it comes from available weather types. For sure it is strong candidate for revising.

    Also I noticed another annoying thing (no weather related). Everytime I connected to your DS, while car stays the same (Nissan GTR-GT3, don't even know why), skin was randomly changing. It's really annoying and afair it was in PC1. I really don't know the point why we have to be forced with such stupid features. There is no single reason to change the skin.
    Last edited by MaXyM; 04-03-2018 at 10:16.
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  9. #9
    WMD Member Asturbo's Avatar
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    Thank you so much for the test, MaXym. The Nissan is forced in my server, that's correct.

    10 attempts is enough to see the pattern. You also can see that no sunny or light cloud results, the same as me. Very strange. You obtained similar results with a 70% of rain. But if you increase the race slots, the options of rain is p70%+p70% = p91%. With 3 random slots, the probability of rain along the race is 97%.

    OK, may be random means that all the weather scenarios have the same probabilities -as it looks now- to show all the features of the game. If was designed in this way, i don't like it, but I don't have anything to say.

    But in this case, we need another option for the weather, something like "realistic" that have different weigths for different scenarios considering the season, the hour, the lattitude of the circuit and the previous slot. It's the only way to have logical races without human intervention.

    PS: This "Realistic" would be different than actual "Real weather", that would be better called "Live weather"
    Last edited by Asturbo; 04-03-2018 at 16:46.
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  10. #10
    Superkart Pilot Ofnir4's Avatar
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    Maybe someone forgot to tell us that random weather is "random non-clear weather" and that we should put the clear slots ourselves ?

    Or maybe it's just heavily weighted towards rain or any effect (snow at the time of year means rain on the track anyway) because it means "surprise me" and goes over the top with eye candy.
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