To fully replicate it would be good to know at least the approximate weather conditions of that Career race. And I presume it is quali + race, right?

Even though I said I had no time I gave it a few tries, because who needs sleep if there is a race to run ;-). To start with something, I set up an 8-lap Custom Race with 16 cars, no quali, me starting in P16, AI 90% (and 50% aggression, I have never changed their aggression, do you guys bump it? I remember from AC that AI would behave like real d*cks at higher aggression level and it was no fun). Turned out I remembered the track pretty well, and also must have driven the car before because I had a saved setup (but probably something very close to default "loose", I do not fiddle with setups much).

So what usually happened is that I got to P8-P6 on the first lap before we got to the first back straight. AI did pretty bad starts and they sucked in the first twisty section in dense traffic. Once I was even in P4 after first lap, getting there with a not very clean pass (aka divebomb ;-) ) at the hairpin.

But then it got more difficult to catch them, when not in traffic they started taking better lines. Also my tyre temp and pressure would go too high and sooner or later I would do a power spin on a corner exit ;-).

So I need to practice that car more and probably also fiddle with the setup a bit. Probably lower tyre pressure to start with (though the setup you posted starts higher, if my psi-to-bar conversion is correct). To catch slides better, I should also lower the steering ratio even more, I used 11.2:1 or so , down from default 13 or 14, I see the setup you posted uses 9.2

Anyway I already had laps below 1:30, maybe one in the 28s. The time may be meaningless if weather/track condition is vastly different in the Career race, but this 90% AI did not seem completely out of my reach.

I'll get back to this.